Ethiopia vs Vietnam coffee: a record crop with five days of stock.
Ethiopia vs Vietnam coffee: Vietnam's record crop ends 2026/27 with stocks of 1.4 percent of a year's use, as home demand rises 56 percent. USDA and ICO data.
Vietnam is forecast to grow a record 32.5 million bags in 2026/27 and still finish the year holding only 489,000 bags. That is 1.4 percent of a year's use, about five days, against 11.1 percent, about 41 days, in 2021/22. The crop is not the cause. Vietnamese drinkers now take 5.0 million bags a year, up 56 percent in five years, while production rose 2.9 percent. Figures are USDA, in thousand 60 kg bags, for marketing years starting in October.
The arithmetic
| Vietnam | 2021/22 | 2026/27 forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Production | 31,580 | 32,500 |
| Domestic consumption | 3,200 | 5,000 |
| Total exports, all forms | 29,010 | 28,950 |
| Ending stocks | 3,580 | 489 |
| Stocks to use | 11.1 percent | 1.4 percent |
Stocks to use is ending stocks divided by consumption plus exports, our calculation: 3,580 / (3,200 + 29,010) = 11.1 percent, and 489 / (5,000 + 28,950) = 1.4 percent. Multiply by 365 for days of cover.
This is thin but not new. The same ratio was 0.8 percent in 2017/18, on the same USDA series. What has changed is the home market. It now absorbs as much coffee as Ethiopia's does, 5.0 million bags each.
Stocks sold into a falling market
The USDA's Ho Chi Minh City office gives the reason in its May 2026 Coffee Annual. Falling prices from the 2024 and 2025 peaks prompted producers, traders and exporters to release stocks. It cut the 2025/26 ending stock estimate to 689,000 bags on stronger exports and higher consumption, which it links to record tourism. It also notes that some farmers still hold coffee back for better prices, so farm stocks are uneven.
The same report flags two risks. Rainfall fell below normal from January to March 2026 in the main Central Highlands provinces. NOAA gave a 62 percent probability of El Niño from June to August 2026, lasting to the end of the year. Our reading: with five days of cover, any weather shortfall goes straight to export availability rather than into a stock drawdown.
The two agencies do not agree on volume
The ICO counts Vietnam's exports of all forms at 30.34 million bags from October 2025 to August 2026, up 19.5 percent. That is eleven months, and it already exceeds the USDA's twelve month estimate of 28.5 million for 2025/26. Both use an October start. We trust the ICO for what has shipped, because it counts shipments, and the USDA for the balance sheet. If the ICO is right, either the crop was larger or stocks are thinner than the USDA shows.
Europe takes almost half
For the 2024/25 crop year Vietnam exported more than 1.5 million tonnes, according to the VICOFA review reported by Voice of Vietnam. Europe took 710,000 tonnes, 47.2 percent of volume. Germany bought 196,259 tonnes, Italy 124,766 and Spain 110,224. In the first half of 2025/26 the USDA records exports up 27.5 percent, with Germany up 46 percent and the United States up 37 percent. Soluble and roasted coffee is about 13 percent of exports, VICOFA says.
Bags by species
Vietnam wins on Robusta, 31.4 million bags against none in Ethiopia, and on green bean exports, 25.4 million against 7.1 million. Ethiopia wins on Arabica, 12.1 million bags against Vietnam's 1.1 million.
For a Robusta buyer this month
- Recompute stocks to use when the USDA updates Vietnam. Anything below the 1.4 percent in this post means less cover than July's forecast.
- Track the ICO's monthly Vietnam export line against the 30.34 million bag pace for October to August.
- Read rainfall for Dak Lak, Gia Lai, Kon Tum, Dak Nong and Lam Dong in January to March, the window the USDA flagged.
- Check NOAA's El Niño status before fixing forward Robusta cover.
What the balance cannot show is how the remaining 489,000 bags split between farms, traders and exporters, and the USDA notes farm holdings vary.
Kaffa Bridge sources Ethiopian Arabica only and acts for the buyer, so it is no help on Vietnamese Robusta. For Ethiopian Arabica the minimum is one full container load, priced on enquiry.
Sources
- USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Coffee: World Markets and Trade, July 2026
- USDA FAS PSD Online, coffee dataset
- USDA FAS GAIN, Vietnam Coffee Annual, VM2026-0016, 20 May 2026
- International Coffee Organization, Coffee Market Report September 2026
- Voice of Vietnam, Coffee exports hit record US$8.4 billion in 2024 to 2025 crop year